The high-brightness LED market will grow 53% from US$8.25bn in 2010 to US$12.6bn in 2011, according to the latest data from Digitimes Research. In particular, significant growth in the LED industry will be generated by lighting applications. The overall use of LEDs in lighting will rise from 4.8bn units in 2010 to 12.4bn units in 2011, as the effects of LED light bulbs replacing incandescent bulbs will start to show in 2011.

Graphic: HB-LED usage as a proportion of application, 2008–2013 (Digitimes).

Although lighting will not represent a high share of the overall LED market (accounting for just 3.2% of the overall LED industry value in 2010), major countries worldwide have laid down LED lighting policies and been actively promoting the development of the LED lighting industry due to growing environmental concerns.

Global demand for LED light bulbs will more than quadruple from 596 million units in 2011 to 2.5bn units in 2013, notes Digitimes Research analyst Jessie Lin. In particular, due to trial projects in many major cities in China, USA and Europe, demand for LED streetlamps will rise from 2.2 million units in 2011 to 9.8 million units in 2013.

With major countries promoting LED lighting, LED lumen efficiency has been improving significantly, and the prices for LED lighting are estimated to drop by 20–30% every year, says Digitimes Research. Lin estimated that LED lighting demand will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 97.4% from 2009 to 2013, which is more than the CAGR of 62.6% for LEDs used in large-size LCD backlighting. The overall LED lighting market will reach US$15.4bn in 2011, when LED lighting devices will account for 10.6% of the overall lighting market, Lin adds.